December 21, 2025

 

The S&P 500 rose 0.1 % this week. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index rose 0.4%, Gold rallied 0.9% and Bitcoin fell 2.5%. 

U.S. data this week painted a mildly disinflationary picture.​ Headline CPI slowed to 2.7% year over year versus 3.1% expected, with core also undershooting consensus. Nonfarm payrolls rose 64,000 versus expectations around 50,000, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6%. October retail sales were flat. Flash PMIs eased, with the U.S. composite at 53.0 and services slightly below expectations.

 

 

 

2026 Investment Outlook

 

 

U.S. stocks head into 2026 after another stellar year, with the S&P 500 up in the mid-teens. Will next year be the year the bull market unravels and the bears storm Wall Street? Unlikely. In 2026, we see more reasons for optimism than pessimism.

A major driver is continued investment in artificial intelligence. Wall Street now expects the largest hyper-scalers to spend roughly $527 billion on AI-related capital expenditures in 2026, up from $465 billion in 2025—a near double-digit increase that underscores an enduring commitment to expanding next-generation compute capacity and data centers. The AI boom boosts productivity, helps ease unit labor costs, and supports corporate margins.

Silverlight’s outlook anticipates a synchronized late-cycle upswing: global growth should improve as tariff uncertainty fades and real U.S. GDP stays resilient. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 75 basis points in 2025, and monetary policy is set to ease further. The Trump administration will likely nominate a monetary dove to replace Chairman Powell early next year.

An affordability crisis is intensifying as middle-class households are increasingly priced out of essential goods. The political response is straightforward: large-scale income transfers ahead of the midterms. Conveniently, the U.S. has room to do so, with nearly $1 trillion in fiscal space driven by a shrinking primary deficit, lower interest costs from rate cuts, Fed balance-sheet support, and a surge in capital-gains tax receipts.

Stimulus in 2026 is likely to arrive in stages—first through oversized tax refunds stemming from retroactive tax changes and over-withholding, then via tariff rebate checks promised to most households. Combined, direct payments and higher government spending could inject $500–$600 billion into an economy already running hot, risking an inflationary boom. While voters may welcome the cash, higher prices could blunt its political payoff, setting the stage for prolonged gridlock, rising populism, and a more volatile market cycle beyond 2026.

 

 

Bitcoin Should Bounce Soon

 

 

Bitcoin is down about 30% from its high October 6. The trigger wasn’t a break in the Bitcoin story, but a bearish macro cocktail—macro nerves, excessive leverage, forced liquidations, and large sellers hitting a market with limited depth. When liquidity disappears, prices don’t glide lower; they drop through air pockets.

Lately, Bitcoin has been pinned in place by market structure. Options dealers are short negative gamma around the $85,000 level, forcing them to sell weakness and buy strength. The result is a mechanically enforced range—roughly $85,000 to $90,000—where price churns without conviction. 

That dynamic changes in late December. A large portion of dealer gamma expires, effectively clearing the board. When that overhang rolls off, the artificial gravity weighing on BTC disappears. History suggests that once the pin is removed, price is free to move again. If spot demand reasserts itself, Bitcoin could rally sharply.

 

 

US Imposes Blockade On Venezuela

 

 

The Trump administration’s decision to blockade sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers marks a sharp escalation in Washington’s long-running pressure campaign against Nicolás Maduro. Officially, the move is framed as targeting terrorism, trafficking, and corruption, but it also clearly aims to choke off Caracas’s core export revenue and disrupt the shadow fleet that has been skirting prior sanctions.​

Near term, the loss or delay of several hundred thousand barrels per day of Venezuelan supply is modest in a well‑supplied market, yet it has already nudged crude prices higher by 1–3% and could add a few dollars to benchmarks if the embargo persists. Higher freight and insurance costs for tankers in the region further tighten effective supply.​

Defense stocks are likely to catch a bid as naval deployments increase and rhetoric hardens, even if direct conflict remains unlikely. For investors, this looks less like a one‑off headline and more like a potentially prolonged standoff that injects another layer of geopolitical risk into both energy and broader risk assets.

 

 

AST SpaceMobile Thesis to Own

 

 

A few weeks ago, we added AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) to Silverlight portfolios. In our view, ASTS is the kind of company long-term investors should pay attention to early, not after the story is obvious. 

ASTS is aiming to do something no company has done before: deliver broadband service from space directly to ordinary smartphones. No satellite dishes. No special hardware. Just your phone, connected anywhere on earth.

ASTS is building a network of large, powerful satellites designed to act like cell towers in space. Their technology has already demonstrated download speeds over 100 Mbps in testing, and their first production satellites are set to launch soon. As the system scales, it has the potential to bring reliable mobile service to the 5 billion people who live, work, or travel in areas with limited connectivity. 

What makes ASTS especially compelling is its business momentum. The company has long-term agreements with major mobile carriers across the world, including a recent 10-year deal in the Middle East and Africa. In addition, ASTS is emerging as a leader not only in commercial communications, but in government and defense applications. The U.S. Space Development Agency recently selected ASTS technology for a program focused on resilient military communications—a strong signal of confidence in their capabilities.

The company is building a space-based mobile network aimed at eliminating coverage gaps globally. That market was roughly $8.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow more than sevenfold by the early 2030s. The balance sheet is strong, leverage is manageable, and revenue growth has been explosive as deployment accelerates. While the valuation screens rich on near-term earnings, premium multiples are often earned by category leaders early in their lifecycle.

 

 

Da Bears Beat Da Packers

 

 

Today marks one of the year's most profound milestones: the Winter Solstice. It's the ultimate pivot—the shortest, darkest day in the Northern Hemisphere. But here's the magic: from this moment, the light starts creeping back, not in a dramatic flood, but bit by bit, ray by ray. It's a quiet reminder that real change often whispers before it roars. The holidays capture this essence too—Hanukkah's miracle of enduring light and Christmas's beacon of hope arriving in the unlikeliest places.

Speaking of unexpected triumphs, let's talk about last night's Chicago Bears thriller against their arch-rivals, the Green Bay Packers. It seemed headed for the usual script: defeat, disappointment, lights out. With time ticking down, the Bears' win probability plummeted to a mere 0.5% before they snagged that onside kick. Yet, against all odds, they pulled it off. Soldier Field exploded in joy! But don't overlook this twist: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams wouldn't have been there to throw the game-winning pass without the team's string of brutal losses in prior years. Those defeats earned them the #1 draft pick—and their future star.

Nature works this way. Storms pass. Waves pull back before they surge. Light always returns. As the year closes, remember the hardest chapters often set up outcomes you can’t yet imagine.

A few reframes to consider:

Professional: A missed promotion creates space to pivot into work that fits you better.

Personal: A painful ending clarifies what you truly value in relationships.

Health: A setback forces habits that ultimately make you stronger than before.

 

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This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Silverlight Asset Management LLC to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Silverlight Asset Management LLC, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.​​