5 Things We Learned This Week - 4/5/2026

In March, Australian entrepreneur Paul Conyngham flew to Silicon Valley with no biology background and showed Sam Altman how he used ChatGPT and other AI tools to design a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine for his dog Rosie—who survived. Altman called it “the coolest meeting I had this week.”

The story is more than heartwarming. It illustrates how the commoditization of specialized knowledge is going to transform society and the investing landscape in the years to come. For most of history, deep expertise was scarce, expensive to acquire, and the bedrock of many high-margin businesses. Today, anyone with a $20-per-month AI subscription can access supercomputer-level help to draft code, iterate product designs, or pressure-test strategies in hours rather than months.

Democratizing access to knowledge expands the available supply. Simple economics tells us that raising the supply of anything drives prices lower, which means future deflationary pressure that will likely chip away at the premium pricing power many firms have long enjoyed. Law firms charging six-figure retainers for complex contracts, strategy consultancies billing millions for proprietary frameworks, and pharmaceutical companies extracting blockbuster margins from patented R&D all face the same headwind: their informational edge is eroding fast.

Lower barriers to entry means some investments won't work as well as they used to. In software, the effect is especially pronounced. Economic moats in this domain used to come from proprietary codebases, switching costs, and scale advantages used to justify lofty valuations. Yet, many investors are now rethinking the durability of many software companies and their value propositions. This explains why many software giants like Microsoft and Salesforce are down over 20% YTD.

Meanwhile, doubts about software valuations have also started to impact the private credit industry. In 2021, right after the Fed printed 26% more money, there was a venture capital frenzy that led to $74 billion being poured into U.S. software startups alone. Unfortunately, much of that was probably a misallocation of capital because it happened just before ChatGPT emerged on the scene and changed everything. Now a lot of malinvestment needs to be purged. For this reason, Silverlight is underweight the technology sector and software stocks. 

It’s increasingly fair to ask: what is any business worth when knowledge itself is being rapidly commoditized? One practical screen is to favor industries where returns are anchored in physical assets, not just intellectual property—think energy, materials, and utilities. These “dumber” sectors rely on scarce resources, infrastructure, and capital intensity, which AI cannot easily replicate. Consensus estimates suggest these three sectors are set up for stronger near-term EPS growth. These sectors are also expected to deliver the most meaningful year-over-year margin expansion across the S&P 500 in 2026—and historically that combo has been a reliable driver of relative outperformance.

Oil spikes have a brutal track record. When crude’s rate of change goes vertical, recessions and bear markets tend to follow. The pattern is clear—1973, 1990, 2000, 2008, 2022. Each of those years saw an oil price spike that preceded a recession, growth scare, or meaningful drawdown.

The mechanism is simple. A surge in energy prices acts like an unlegislated tax hike. It pulls cash from households, compresses business margins, and tightens financial conditions—even if the Fed stands still. Planning slows. Capex gets deferred. Growth rolls over.

Today’s setup is familiar. Brent crude oil briefly traded above 140—its highest level since 2008, though still below the 185 inflation-adjusted peak from that cycle. The Iran shock has already removed over 10% of global supply and disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for roughly 20% of world oil. If disruptions deepen, a reasonable upside range is 150–180 Brent. The high end would represent a 2008-style shock and imply a high probability of global recession.

Markets, meanwhile, bounced this week. The move was driven more by positioning than fundamentals—oversold conditions, amplified by a large JPMorgan options trade, sparked a sharp technical rally. We deployed some sidelined cash near the lows, but the intermediate-term macro backdrop remains fragile. Our approach stays the same: remain disciplined, but flexible. We’ll lean into panic selling and scale back into strength. Until the oil shock is clearly contained, we believe active, nimble positioning is more prudent than passive buy-and-hold.

This week the White House signaled that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is “not one of the ‘core objectives’” of ending the Iran war, implying Trump could declare victory and come home while the world’s key oil artery remains compromised. If the U.S. walks away, the most likely macro consequence is structurally higher energy prices, stickier inflation, and a faster re-rating of dollar assets as investors price a world where Washington no longer underwrites the sea lanes.

Wall Street’s original “TACO” trade—“Trump Always Chickens Out”—was born in 2017–2018, when each bombastic tariff threat was a chance to buy the dip. The market learned that bluster meant volatility, not regime change, and buying weakness was the right response.

But Trump also has a habit of cutting ties when situations no longer flatter him, from this week’s sacking of loyalists like Pam Bondi to a business career that ran through six Chapter 11 bankruptcies. Iran, Hormuz, and $100-plus crude offer no photo-op win, only blame.

A “Trump Taco” moment—abandoning the Strait—would hit the U.S. with higher pump prices and tighter financial conditions, while Europe and Asia face outright energy insecurity and forced deindustrialization. Over time, more oil invoicing in non‑dollars and deeper Asian energy alliances would accelerate the slow erosion of the petrodollar, favoring themes like non‑U.S. energy producers, real assets, select EM local‑currency debt, and a structural bid for gold.

Joby Aviation (JOBY) recently completed a landmark piloted electric air taxi flight across the San Francisco Bay and around the Golden Gate Bridge. The quiet, emission-free aircraft handled real-world airspace with ease, proving it can operate safely near one of the world’s busiest and most iconic skylines. 

We consider Joby the most exciting flying-car company in the world. The company's mission is to deliver fast, quiet, zero-emission air taxis that bypass gridlocked roads and slash travel times in major metros. The service will work like Uber for the skies. Passengers book via app, arrive at a compact vertiport, and hop aboard a four-passenger aircraft for short flights. Initial rollout targets Dubai by the end of this year, followed immediately by U.S. operations across ten states. Transit flights are expected to cost $50–$200 per person depending on distance.  

What truly sets Joby apart isn’t just its aircraft—it’s the regulatory runway it has built over years of disciplined engagement with the FAA and international authorities. This month, Joby became the first eVTOL developer to enter the final stage of FAA Type Certification. This Joby as the de facto reference case for powered-lift certification, giving it a multi-year head start over competitors.

Building this type of company brings real hurdles—FAA certification, vertiport permitting, airspace integration, and manufacturing ramp. Joby’s edge is a rock-solid balance sheet with billions in liquidity, Toyota’s manufacturing expertise, Delta’s operational know-how, and a deep bench of blue-chip investor backers. Internationally, Joby has locked in a six-year exclusive operating agreement with Dubai’s Road and Transport Authority, complete with parallel qualification under the UAE’s GCAA. This delivers not only first-mover revenue but also a treasure trove of operational data that strengthens its global safety case. Saudi Arabia has already signaled it will accept FAA certification outright, creating a clear path into more high-value markets.

We see revenue scaling rapidly over the coming years as fleets expand and network effects kick in. At current levels, Joby trades well below its SPAC-era highs and looks like an attractive risk-reward setup for patient capital. Regulatory advantage is the kind of sticky strategic attribute that AI can't easily disrupt. The physical capital intensity of Joby's operation also helps insulate it from AI disruption risk. Therefore, even though this is an early-stage company and one of the highest beta stocks in client portfolios, we think Joby offers attractive diversification with compelling upside potential. A recent cluster of DeMark buy signals on both the daily and weekly charts adds technical tailwinds. Silverlight added JOBY to managed accounts this week.

In 2011, Robert Netzly was a successful advisor at a major bank in California, doing what most advisors are taught to do: grow assets. His production numbers looked great. The problem was that his conscience did not feel great. As Easter approached that year, he realized the portfolios he was building for clients failed to reflect the faith and values he professed with his family on Sunday. In his words, he could not imagine explaining his portfolio choices “in front of God.” 

That conviction pushed Netzly to do something most advisors would never do: he walked away from a stable job to build a biblically responsible investing firm from scratch. All he had going for him was a laptop and a sense that integrity mattered. The move probably seemed reckless on a spreadsheet, but over time it became the foundation of Inspire Investing, which today manages over $4 billion and donates half of profits to Christian charities. 

Inspire aims to align capital with conviction using a unique screening framework, the Inspire Impact Score. But you don't need the bible or a quant score to derive a useful takeaway from this story. A universal lesson is to treat your life the way you would treat any serious portfolio. It's not enough just to have the numbers work. Your finances should also reflect the input of another internal investment committee—your values. Practicing more inspired ways of investing and building wealth can help you feel more resilient when markets get shaky. It can also make you feel better about how you are allocating resources on a holiday like Easter, when it's natural to ask yourself high-level questions about what all of this is for.