5 Things We Learned This Week - 5/10/2025
May 10, 2025
The S&P 500 fell 0.5% this week. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index declined 0.2%, while Gold rallied 3.0% and Bitcoin jumped 6.3%.
In a light week for economic news, the ISM Services report showed continued strength with the Purchasing Manager's Index still in expansion territory. The prices paid index rose again, indicating inflation pressure was already building in the supply chain pre-tariffs. At this month's Federal Reserve meeting, the committee kept interest rates steady at 4.25% - 4.5%, citing increased risks of both inflation and unemployment due to tariff uncertainty. The Fed signaled patience, awaiting clearer data before adjusting policy.
Strategic Reserves and Corporate FOMO Are Bullish For Bitcoin
This week, New Hampshire became the first U.S. state to approve a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Government officials see Bitcoin as a way to bolster financial sovereignty in volatile economic times. Specifically, it's viewed by many as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. In Latin America, El Salvador has already adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, while Argentina and Brazil are exploring strategic reserves. Globally, over a dozen states and countries have introduced bills to acquire more cryptocurrency, signaling a competitive race may be starting.
Beyond nation-state FOMO, massive Bitcoin acquisition vehicles are also forming. New companies like Zap and Metaplanet are beginning to mimic MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin-buying playbook, loading their balance sheets with the asset. As governments and corporate giants increasingly compete to buy before other large entities, Bitcoin’s scarcity could easily drive prices parabolic, reshaping global finance in this high-stakes race. Silverlight is long Bitcoin because we think being 100% invested in fiat currency while all this stuff is going on seems way risker than not owning any Bitcoin. Bitcoin may go to zero someday, but it may also go up a thousand percent. Think about it this way: if Bitcoin skyrockets way beyond what the non-believers fathom possible, those who don't own any will lose a lot of purchasing power compared to those who do. Diversifying that risk makes sense.
DOGE Ain't Doing Much, But That's Probably Short-Term Bullish
Despite Elon Musk’s headline grabbing promises, DOGE hasn’t made a dent in the federal deficit. After initially pledging $2 trillion in cuts, Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency now claims $160 billion saved, a figure many experts say is inflated and offset by costly missteps. The Congressional Budget Office projects a $1.9 trillion deficit for 2025, up from last year and expected to rise further in 2026. This ballooning gap underscores how little DOGE has moved the needle, with total government spending actually increasing year-over-year.
Musk’s tendency to overpromise and underdeliver is nothing new. Tesla’s robo-taxi fleet remains elusive, SpaceX’s Mars colony is still a fantasy, and X (formerly Twitter) has hemorrhaged value since his takeover. As with his companies, Musk’s grand government savings have proven more hype than reality, leaving the deficit challenge for Congress to tackle. As we said upon Trump's election, "Pay attention to what they do, not what they say." Musk and Trump say a LOT of stuff they don't do. Given the track record, it's amazing they still command so much media attention.
While it's disappointing to see yet another attempt at controlling government spending fall by the wayside, there is a silver lining in terms of short-term market implications. If DOGE had actually kickstarted an aggressive austerity movement, the U.S. economy would almost surely go into a deep recession. Instead, fiscal spending will likely remain mostly intact while liquidity is expanding. This is probably good news for stock market bulls in 2025. On the other hand, the obvious lack of fiscal discipline is probably bad news for the U.S. dollar's long-term outlook.
The New Grand Theft Auto Video Game Will Be a Blockbuster
Videogames are more popular than ever. The global video game industry is projected to grow at a robust 13.4% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, reaching $584 billion by 2030. That level of growth exceeds most entertainment segments. Take-Two Interactive is a top video game designer, with a strong portfolio of blockbuster franchises like Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, and NBA 2K. Take-Two's strategy differs from other major game publishers through its unwavering focus on quality over quantity, prioritizing the development of high-quality, innovative games rather than frequent releases.
This week, Take-Two Interactive announced Grand Theft Auto VI’s release is delayed to May 26, 2026, which sent shares down a little off the all-time high. This setback does nothing to diminish the future opportunity. Grand Theft Auto V sold over 210 million units, captivating a global audience of 400 million players. GTA VI, with a decade of hype, is projected to rake in $1 billion in pre-orders and $3.2 billion in its first year. Analysts call it “the most important release in industry history.” For Take-Two, this delay will ensure a polished product, reinforcing its dominance. Silverlight managed portfolios added Take Two (TTWO) earlier this year. If you'd like to see what all the buzz is about in relation to their upcoming game, you can watch the new trailer here. The industry has come a long way from the early Nintendo days!
Quantum Leaps Reshaping the Digital Frontier
Recent breakthroughs in quantum physics are amazing. For example, quantum teleportation might sound like sci-fi, but it’s a real (and mind-bending) process rooted in quantum entanglement. This is a phenomenon where two particles become linked, sharing a mysterious connection no matter how far apart they are. Here's how it works in simple terms: Imagine two magic coins (particles) created together. If one lands heads, the other instantly lands tails, even if they're on opposite sides of the galaxy. This "spooky link" is entanglement.
Harvard’s successful demonstration of long-distance quantum entanglement using telecom infrastructure in Boston signals a paradigm shift in secure data transmission. This milestone underscores the accelerating race to build a quantum internet, which promises secure communication via quantum cryptography and exponentially faster problem-solving capabilities. This technology will change many industries. Financial institutions will be able to better secure transactions against cyberthreats, while telecoms and governments may have to overhaul a lot of critical communication infrastructure.
Beyond the internet itself, quantum computing advancements are fueling a new wave of tech investment. Companies like Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) are pivotal here. Rigetti, a leader in superconducting qubit technology, recently secured a a grant from the United Kingdom to pioneer quantum error correction—a critical step toward scalable, fault-tolerant systems. Their collaboration with Riverlane and upgrades to 36-qubit processors position them at the vanguard of commercialization. As a full-stack quantum developer, Rigetti designs chips, software, and cloud-accessible systems, serving sectors from defense to AI. The company's impressive R&D partnerships and focus on modular, scalable solutions makes it a standout bet for the quantum era. Silverlight managed portfolios are long Rigetti Computing.
A Mother’s Day Story of Hope
Motherhood is a journey that comes in many beautiful forms, as captured in a heartfelt story from DaySpring. After struggling with infertility and loss, the author’s path to motherhood took an unexpected turn through foster care. Inspired by the needs of young women aging out of the foster system, she opened her heart and home to Lovelle, a twenty-year-old who became her daughter in every sense. Their family grew not by biology, but by love, choice, and grace.
The story reminds us that motherhood is not limited to biology. As the author writes, “All women are mothers, she discovered, because all women bring life into the world in some way.” Through fostering, adoption, or nurturing others in unique ways, the essence of motherhood is found in acts of love and care. This Mother’s Day, let’s celebrate every woman who brings life, hope, and belonging to others.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Silverlight Asset Management LLC to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Silverlight Asset Management LLC, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.