5 Things We Learned This Week - 8/23/2025
August 23, 2025
The S&P 500 rallied 0.3% this week. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index gained 0.5%, while Gold rose 1.0% and Bitcoin fell 0.3%.
Risk assets started the week under pressure as investors braced for Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole. By Friday, markets rebounded sharply after Powell hinted more clearly at the possibility of upcoming rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed survey and housing data underscored a cooling U.S. economy, with soft employment trends and reduced hours worked suggesting July’s weakness may spill into August. Flash PMIs ticked up slightly but remain subdued overall. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index slipped another -0.1%—its 38th decline in 41 months—once again reinforcing the organization’s official recession warning signal.
Powell’s Jackson Hole Balancing Act Signals a Dovish Tilt
In 1987, Alan Greenspan famously quipped, “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell may have had the same thought at Jackson Hole this week. His carefully worded remarks sent markets soaring as investors interpreted them as confirmation of near-term rate cuts.
While some inflation readings have ticked higher, Powell suggested that easing policy could still be sensible given the broader economic backdrop. Growth has slowed meaningfully since 2024, the labor market is showing early signs of stress, and consumer spending has cooled. With the Fed’s policy rate still well above its estimated neutral level, a modest cut could provide insurance against a sharper downturn without immediately stoking runaway prices.
Powell acknowledged a growing tension: inflation risks remain to the upside, but labor market data is weakening and downside risks to employment are rising. With policy still “in restrictive territory,” he noted that conditions “may warrant adjusting our policy stance”—a clear dovish signal.
For markets, easier policy suggests more fuel for risk assets. A weaker U.S. dollar would likely follow, boosting equities, gold, and Bitcoin. Yet the Fed’s room to maneuver may be narrower than markets believe—cut too aggressively, and it risks reigniting inflation while undermining long-term credibility.
Even Sam Altman Thinks the AI Boom Is Treading Bubble Territory
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stirred headlines by warning that the AI boom may be in bubble territory. As he put it, “When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,” acknowledging that while AI is transformative, investor enthusiasm may be running too hot.
This skepticism gains weight in The Hater’s Guide to the AI Bubble, which argues the generative AI surge lacks real substance. The piece skewers the hype as wasteful, ineffective, and unsupported by meaningful revenue or product efficacy—casting the AI boom as a mirage built more on excitement than actual value.
Still, not everyone agrees that a crash is imminent. Optimists argue that while valuations are lofty, AI is already showing transformative impact across productivity, healthcare, and enterprise software. From this view, current multiples reflect long-term potential rather than pure speculation, and the sector may continue expanding as real-world applications prove durable.
Bottom line: investors shouldn’t fear the AI wave, but like all fast-moving tech cycles, it’s wise to surf it with eyes wide open.
Iceland: From Energy Utopia to Net Zero Overreach
Iceland has long been a model of clean energy. Its grid is entirely carbon-free, powered 70% by hydropower and 30% by geothermal, while 90% of homes are warmed by an advanced geothermal district heating system. That foundation has fueled both prosperity—GDP per capita near $90,000—and competitive industries like aluminum smelting and, more recently, data centers drawn by cheap, renewable energy and a cold climate.
But despite contributing just 0.01% of global emissions, Iceland has pledged carbon neutrality by 2040 and a 40% emissions cut by 2030, going even further than EU rules require. Its government is aggressively subsidizing EV adoption, which already makes up over half of new car sales. Yet analysts warn the rollout is outpacing grid investment, with risks of widespread energy shortages by 2029.
Permitting delays and environmental opposition to new transmission lines compound the challenge, leaving Iceland vulnerable. The paradox: a nation with the world’s cleanest grid could undermine its energy security in pursuit of symbolic Net Zero goals.
VICI Properties Investment Thesis
Silverlight clients recently initiated a position in VICI Properties (VICI), a leading experiential REIT. VICI owns and develops gaming, hospitality, and entertainment destinations—most notably a dominant collection of iconic resorts and casinos on the Las Vegas Strip.
We view this investment as part of a broader “Scarcity Real Assets” macro theme—owning irreplaceable properties in markets where supply is structurally constrained. Few parcels in the world rival the scarcity and long-term value of prime Vegas real estate.
Our thesis: VICI enjoys sustainable competitive advantages through long-term, triple-net leases with industry-leading operators like Caesars and MGM. These contracts provide reliable, inflation-protected income streams, while the company’s scale and balance sheet strengthen its moat. With demand for entertainment and leisure showing enduring resilience, VICI’s future looks bright.
From a valuation perspective, shares trade around 13x AFFO (Adjusted Funds From Operations), implying a 7.5% AFFO yield. With CPI-linked rent escalators, we expect 10–12% base returns—and potentially more if interest rates decline, prompting a valuation re-rating. Investors are also paid while they wait, with VICI currently offering a 5.6% dividend yield.
Scarcity. Income durability. Inflation protection. That’s why VICI fits our playbook for long-term compounding.
Settling Is For Suckers
One of the most inspiring examples of refusing to settle comes from Colonel Harland Sanders, the founder of Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC). At 65, Sanders was broke, living in a modest house, and surviving on small Social Security checks. Instead of resigning himself to a quiet, difficult retirement, he chose to bet on the one thing he believed could change his life: his fried chicken recipe.
Sanders hit the road, pitching his idea to restaurant owners across the country. He asked for just a small royalty per piece of chicken sold. What he got instead was rejection—more than a thousand times. Yet he refused to quit, convinced his recipe had value. On his 1,010th attempt, he finally heard “yes.” That single breakthrough became the foundation for KFC, now one of the largest fast-food empires in the world. Sanders’ story proves that resilience and persistence in the face of repeated setbacks can transform failure into lasting success.
Settling can be dangerous because it trades today’s comfort for tomorrow’s regret. When you accept what is just “OK” you cap your growth, mute your energy, and train your brain to expect less—from work, love, and life.
Career: Last year, a close friend of mine who had worked for the same company for 28 years shared that, for way too long, on weekdays he woke up in dread and at the end of the day went home drained. He had passively settled for a paycheck without purpose.
Relationships: Rather than establishing healthy boundaries and agreements, settling on an unhappy status quo to avoid constructive conflict can lead to a bland relationship that eventually unravels.
Where You Live: Settling on a convenient location that starves what lights you up – whether your love of nature, desire for a close community, or fun outlets for creativity, can lead to a suppressed lifestyle and boring legacy.
Signs you may be settling:
- You sigh more than you laugh
- You consistently numb or distract yourself
- You’re bored
- You’re not listening to that still, small voice inside you
Never settle. Settling is for suckers.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Silverlight Asset Management LLC to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Silverlight Asset Management LLC, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.