George Bernard Shaw once quipped, "If all economists were laid end to end, they would still not reach a conclusion." There’s truth to Shaw’s comment—economic forecasting is tricky and imprecise. Everyone’s crystal ball is hazy, including mine. But that does not mean all economic indicators are created equal (or rather, are equally unreliable). Some indicators are historically and statistically sound...
How much money is enough? The more money we have, the more choices we have in life. So, money is important. But as we all know, money is not the only thing that matters. *** It’s a Wonderful Life plays on the major television networks each year at Christmas. The film’s main protagonist—George Bailey—struggles with how to value his life...
When it comes to investing, most people are in search of reliable return streams to facilitate lifestyles and legacies they aspire to. And while we are all unique, we have many things in common in the way we want our money to work for us. The “perfect” return stream, if we were to sketch it, might resemble the Mystery Fund...
The world is changing at a faster pace by the day. As existing paradigms are upended, it can be hard to see in real-time, because of cognitive biases we all carry around with us. In this piece I wrote for RealClearMarkets , I explore changes taking shape in the Consumer Staples and Technology sectors. *** We take eye exams to...
Alexander Bottema is a middle-aged computer programmer in Massachusetts. On the surface—a normal guy. However, he recently did something extraordinary. “I’m not a billionaire yet,” Bottema told Business Insider. “But my capital has grown by a factor of more than one hundred since I sold all my stocks and liquidated my savings in order to buy bitcoins in 2013.” That’s...
Finding value becomes more challenging as an investment cycle matures. Many stocks now trade at rich valuations compared to history. Concurrently, a lot of cheap stocks run a risk of being 'value traps.' Cheap gets cheaper when business models become impaired, and that's becoming more common across a handful of industries (e.g. retail). This stock spotlight video profiles the investment...
No one rings a bell to signify a market top. It sneaks up on us. The music just stops. *** At the stroke of midnight, February 3, 1959 started out an ordinary day. An hour later, what happened in an Iowa cornfield made it an extraordinary day in the eyes of American pop culture. A group of musicians was touring...
There was a popular game show in the 1950s called “I’ve Got a Secret.” A celebrity panel received clues, then they tried to guess a contestant’s “secret.” Let’s play a similar game. Using these clues, try to guess the stock being referenced: I was the best performing stock in the second-half of the 20 th century I’ve averaged a 20%...
Do you dare to do what you love? Do you connect the dots to find your way forward, no matter what? I named my firm Silverlight to highlight an important idea. That is: adversity always carries a silver lining. If Steve Jobs had not been fired from Apple, he would not have become the man he was. Apple would not...
"Are you going to evacuate?" “No,” she replied. “We were going to, but we can’t find gas. Plus, when I looked for a hotel room in Orlando a few days ago, they were totally booked. No one knows for sure where this storm is going. We even thought about going to Uncle Bob’s, but the Carolinas might get hit too...
Earlier this month, we published a blog mentioning Berkshire Hathaway's swelling cash balance. We also released a video describing how the U.S. stock market has become expensive. Today, Warren Buffett spoke directly on these topics in the interview clip below, provided courtesy of Bloomberg TV. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment...
Monetary officials will soon begin rolling back quantitative easing programs. So, it is a good time for investors to survey the present landscape and review their positioning. Like most risk assets around the world, U.S. stocks are expensive compared to history. One can quibble over just how expensive. But the point is—they’re expensive. The video below explores how you should...